All Plays One Unit
Week 4: 4-2 66.67% +1.86U
Preseason Straight Plays: 16-9-0 64.00% +6.47U
Regular Season Straight Plays: 18-8 69.23% +9.52U
Total Straight Plays: 34-17 66.67% +15.99U
Money Line Underdogs: 0-1 0.00% -1.00U
Total = +14.99U
Sacrificed some write-ups because I need some tailgating sleep for Browns/Steelers game. Kick butt and take names everyone!!
Miami/New England UNDER 34.5 -107
Tampa Bay +3 -104
NY Giants/Dallas OVER 38 -107
Detroit/Atlanta OVER 40.5 -107
Both defenses' strengths in this matchup is run defense and both have very poor pass defenses. Without the aid of clock-chewing running, both offenses should put the ball in the air which should lengthen this game and hopefully push the final score over the total. Since the start of 2003, Atlanta is allowing 251 yards/game and 1.6 TD passes per game to all teams not named the Arizona Cardinals. Vick had his best passing game of his career versus Detroit the last time he faced them with 337 passing yards and two TD passes. The Lions are allowing 299 passing yards/game in 2004. Warrick Dunn has 5 TD's in 4 games and had 132 yards plus a TD the last time he faced Detroit. Atlanta has 16 sacks this season already and with a lot of passing on the docket, turnovers could create short fields or defensive TD's in this one also.
NY Jets -6.5 -106
The Bills have injuries at key positions: Center Trey Teague is out with a knee injury and is the anchor of a line responsible for opening holes for Travis Henry. Troy Vincent is out and his replacement(McGee) was torched by David Patten last week. Safety Milloy is still out and S Wire is questionable with a quad injury. This sets up Pennington for a potential big day. The Jets have scored 30 points in 3 of last 4 versus Bills & scored 30+ in 2 of 3 this year. Moulds is the struggling Bledsoe's only real threat but he has struggled versus the Jets in the last 4 games(only eclipsed 24 receiving yards one time). Trend - Teams are 12-0 SU(11-1 ATS) since 1997 when an undefeated home team plays a winless team. Average margin is 22.4 points.
St. Louis/Seattle UNDER 43.5 -107
Martz turned to the running game last week with good results and I expect him to continue running it this week to keep Seattle's offense off the field. Seattle will likely have a similar strategy against the Rams so there could be some clock-chewing going on here. Faulk touched the ball 43 times in 2 games versus Seattle last season. Seattle has not allowed a rushing TD in 2004, has limited teams to 71 YPG on the ground, and has allowed 16 points TOTAL in 3 games. Seattle is 5th in the NFL in passing yards allowed and has 5 INT's as well. This is a key divisional game and I expect it too be much closer to the vest than public perception. Trend - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 67-102-5, 60.4% Unders --- O/U 32-52-3, 61.9% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). (7-4, 63.6% in '04)
Week 4: 4-2 66.67% +1.86U
Preseason Straight Plays: 16-9-0 64.00% +6.47U
Regular Season Straight Plays: 18-8 69.23% +9.52U
Total Straight Plays: 34-17 66.67% +15.99U
Money Line Underdogs: 0-1 0.00% -1.00U
Total = +14.99U
Sacrificed some write-ups because I need some tailgating sleep for Browns/Steelers game. Kick butt and take names everyone!!
Miami/New England UNDER 34.5 -107
Tampa Bay +3 -104
NY Giants/Dallas OVER 38 -107
Detroit/Atlanta OVER 40.5 -107
Both defenses' strengths in this matchup is run defense and both have very poor pass defenses. Without the aid of clock-chewing running, both offenses should put the ball in the air which should lengthen this game and hopefully push the final score over the total. Since the start of 2003, Atlanta is allowing 251 yards/game and 1.6 TD passes per game to all teams not named the Arizona Cardinals. Vick had his best passing game of his career versus Detroit the last time he faced them with 337 passing yards and two TD passes. The Lions are allowing 299 passing yards/game in 2004. Warrick Dunn has 5 TD's in 4 games and had 132 yards plus a TD the last time he faced Detroit. Atlanta has 16 sacks this season already and with a lot of passing on the docket, turnovers could create short fields or defensive TD's in this one also.
NY Jets -6.5 -106
The Bills have injuries at key positions: Center Trey Teague is out with a knee injury and is the anchor of a line responsible for opening holes for Travis Henry. Troy Vincent is out and his replacement(McGee) was torched by David Patten last week. Safety Milloy is still out and S Wire is questionable with a quad injury. This sets up Pennington for a potential big day. The Jets have scored 30 points in 3 of last 4 versus Bills & scored 30+ in 2 of 3 this year. Moulds is the struggling Bledsoe's only real threat but he has struggled versus the Jets in the last 4 games(only eclipsed 24 receiving yards one time). Trend - Teams are 12-0 SU(11-1 ATS) since 1997 when an undefeated home team plays a winless team. Average margin is 22.4 points.
St. Louis/Seattle UNDER 43.5 -107
Martz turned to the running game last week with good results and I expect him to continue running it this week to keep Seattle's offense off the field. Seattle will likely have a similar strategy against the Rams so there could be some clock-chewing going on here. Faulk touched the ball 43 times in 2 games versus Seattle last season. Seattle has not allowed a rushing TD in 2004, has limited teams to 71 YPG on the ground, and has allowed 16 points TOTAL in 3 games. Seattle is 5th in the NFL in passing yards allowed and has 5 INT's as well. This is a key divisional game and I expect it too be much closer to the vest than public perception. Trend - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 67-102-5, 60.4% Unders --- O/U 32-52-3, 61.9% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). (7-4, 63.6% in '04)
